[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/8/02 1:27:31 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 080633
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
133 AM CDT SUN SEP 8 2002

QUIET WX PATTERN CONTINUES BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE BREAKING IT DOWN. FORCING IS NONEXISTENT OR MAINLY
DOWNWARD THUS PRECLUDING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ONLY NEW CHANGE IS INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MAKE IT MORE HUMID. FOG POTENTIAL IS
THERE TONIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON/T REALLY SUGGEST THIS.
BIGGER QUESTION IS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WITH FRONT. UPWARD FORCING
WEAKENS WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES CWFA WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WEAKENING AS WELL. THIS COULD BE A REPEAT OF NUMEROUS FRONTS THIS WARM
SEASON. AT LONG RANGE THEY LOOK LIKE A GOOD PRECIP EVENT AND WITH THE
ACTUAL FROPA YOU CAN COUNT THE SHRA ON ONE HAND. NEEDLESS TO SAY ANY
PRECIP TO BE POST FRONTAL WHICH WOULD ELIMINATE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT SOUTHEAST HALF.

FWC/MAV FAIRLY SIMILAR PERIODS 1 AND 2 WITH MAV WARMER. MAV NUMBERS
FOR MONDAY LOOK BETTER THAN COOLER FWC. TRAJECTORY METHOD YIELDS LOW TO
MID 90S TODAY WHICH IS TOO WARM. PERSISTENCE YIELDS NUMBERS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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