[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/5/02 1:42:32 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 050648
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
147 AM CDT THU SEP 5 2002

UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES REMAINS OVER REGION AS CENTER OF HIGH DRIFTS FROM
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.  BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE S/W OVER PLAINS PROGGED TO TOP RIDGE...MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN IA/NW IL FRIDAY.  FOR TODAY...AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE RIDGE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING WEAK.  BASED ON
YESTERDAY'S TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER FWC/MET TEMPS AND GO WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS.  THIS
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY WARMING 925 AND 850 TEMPS. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...
SO THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREA.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.  WILL STAY CLOSE TO WARMER MAV
NUMBERS.  QUESTION FOR FRIDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT TO ADD POPS IN RESPONSE
TO S/W MOVING THROUGH.  ETA/AVN MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WHILE NGM
BREAKS SOME LIGHT QPF  FROM CENTRAL IA INTO EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA.  PASSAGE OF THE S/W WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION OFF MOIST AXIS OVER WESTERN IOWA AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DRY LOW/MID LEVELS OVER ERN IA/WRN IL. IF S/W TRIGGERS SOME CONVECTION
WEST OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME DEBRIS SHRA/TSRA COULD MAKE IT INTO
FAR W. HOWEVER...FEEL CHANCES OF ANY THING OF SIGNIFICANCE ARE MINIMAL
AND WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY.  NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
EXTENDED.  WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AVN
SHOWING SOME WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING NORTH AROUND UPPER RIDGE.  THESE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF