[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/4/02 3:00:03 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 040805 CCA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2002

00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA.  A LARGE AREA OF 60+ METER HEIGHT RISES WAS NOTED
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA.  RIDGE WAS BUILDING BETWEEN UPPER LOW
OVER B.C. COAST AND UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.  HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER NE IOWA AT 06Z.

ETA HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON VORT ASSOCIATED WITH S/W NR UTAH/WYOMING
BORDER AT 00Z...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODEL
INITIALIZATION TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING TODAY
AND LIFT UT/WY WAVE OVER TOP OF RIDGE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS OVER REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN
CONCERN THIS FORECAST. WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER AREA EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY.  CI MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD THIN AS
IT MOVES EAST AND SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS TODAY. 850 TEMPS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY....BUT WITH LITTLE WIND NEAR THE
SURFACE...DON'T THINK WE WILL MIX TO 850. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE TUESDAYS MAXES WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS.
SHOULD HAVE SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT...AS UT/WY
SYSTEM MOVES INTO RIDGE.  MOS TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S AND LOOK REASONABLE.  THURSDAY MODELS MOVE S/W NORTH OF
CWA AND KEEP BEST FORCING ACROSS MN.  MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT LOW/MID
LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND FORCING WILL BE WEAK...WILL REMOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING FROM THE NW COUNTIES.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL
WARM TREND INTO FRIDAY. MAV/FWC BLEND LOOKS BEST.

A QUICK LOOK AT NEW MRF/UKMET SHOWS UKMET FALLING IN LINE WITH MRF FOR
THE WEEKEND.  PREVIOUS UKMET RUNS SUGGESTED THAT SURFACE FRONT WOULD
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CWA BY SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...04/00Z RUN NOW HOLDS
FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS THE MRF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING. SINCE MODELS
ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS FEATURE...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF