[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/1/02 2:47:31 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 011952
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
252 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE LOW.  SFC FRONT WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT STILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR TSRA.  LLJ TO
SHIFT EAST OVER NWRN HALF OF CWFA TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS
TONIGHT.

STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF MOVING INTO
THE DAKOTAS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  MODELS
THIS RUN ARE A FEW HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FROPA...BUT MONDAY NIGHT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR OUR AREA.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE A CATEGORY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH SIMILAR
HUMIDITY. MET TEMPS WAY OVERDONE...SO WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF MAV AND
FWC.  COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS EXPECTED...SOME DISCREPANCIES
IN HOW THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE BREAK-DOWN OF THE RIDGE.
WILL KEEP SAT/SUN DRY FOR NOW AS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INSERT POPS
ATTM.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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