[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/31/02 3:08:30 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 312118 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CST THU OCT 31 2002

COLD TEMPS THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. EXPECT TO BE WITHIN A CATEGORY OF 
RECORDS...SO WILL PUT IN NEAR RECORD WORDING.  CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT 
FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER CWFA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING THE 
WEATHER DRY AND CLEAR.  COLD AIR WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY.  WILL UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY...BUT FULL SUN SHOULD 
WARM TEMPS INTO THE 40S.  SURFACE RIDGE CENTER WILL TRACK TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY.  
ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK BUT WORTH A LOW 
POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SUUPORT REACHES THE CWFA.  TEMPS 
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE MIX TOWARD THE END NORTHERN ZONES...BUT MAINLY 
RAIN. WILL KEEP SNOW OUT FOR NOW AS A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN DONT 
WARRANT SNOW WORDING AT THIS POINT.  

EXTENDED (MON-THU)...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS 
TO SOMEWHAT ZONAL MONDAY...BUT THEN LONGER RANGE MODELS DEEPEN AN 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US.  MRF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE 
UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR TREND.  WILL FOLLOW THIS GENERAL  
IDEA BUT GO EASY ON THE POPS AS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND 
EVOLUTION AT THIS POINT TO GO GUNG HO WITH THIS SOLUTION.  

MAIN SHOW WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE 
SWRN US...POTENTIALLY PUTTING OUR CWFA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE 
PRECIP.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. 
TUESDAY...THEN CAA SHOULD DROP TEMPS TO BELOW GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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