[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/31/02 2:29:10 AM

Thu, 31 Oct 2002 02:29:10 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 310839 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 AM CST THU OCT 31 2002

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER 
MIDWEST...WITH RISES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.  WSR-88D SHOWING 
GRADUALLY DECREASING RETURNS...WITH ONLY SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AT 
MOST SITES.  BANDS OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RETURNS VISIBLE ON UPSTREAM 
RADARS...SO EXPECT THAT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH MID MORNING...THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS A ISSUANCE 
TIME APPROACHES.  

00Z MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF 
THE AVN AND ETA THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE 
HIGH PLAINS...WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 
SATURDAY.  THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF COLD AIR...WITH A COLD CANADIAN 
AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED... 
SHEARED OUT VORT MAX WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE 
AREA TODAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW DRYING SUBSIDENCE TO MOVE INTO AREA 
TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURE QUESTION WILL DEPEND ON CLEARING TRENDS 
TODAY.  CLEARING BAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA...DELAYING 
ANY SERIOUS CLEARING TIL AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL 
SIDE.  TONIGHT THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW WILL TEMPS GO WITH SUCH 
CONDITIONS...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.  FOR NOW AM GOING 
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.  THIS IS ENOUGH ABOVE RECORD VALUES 
THAT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THIS OUT OF ZFP TEXT ATTM.  FRIDAY SHOULD 
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD...THOUGH SOME CUMULUS SHOULD POP AS UPPER 
LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.  FRIDAY TEMPS IN MOSTLY 
SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMER THAN TODAY...SHOULD 
RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPS HAVE 
POTENTIAL TO GET VERY CHILLY AGAIN...AND WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT 
AS NO WAA OR FRESH CAA DEVELOPS.  RECORD VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY 
COLDER...SO AGAIN NO MENTION OF THIS. SATURDAY SHOULD MODERATE 
SOME...WITH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 40S REASONABLE.

EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...TWEAKED SUNDAY A LITTLE TO DELAY TIMING OF 
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH AREA.  AVN HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT 
THIS WAVE IS DUE THROUGH JUST AFTER 00Z...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT.  OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE REMAINDER OF 
THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIODS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE