[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/30/02 1:30:35 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 301939 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
135 PM CST WED OCT 30 2002

CONCERNS YESTERDAY OF MODELS DAMPENING WAVE TOO MUCH HAVE BEEN VALIDATED.
12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED CLOSED H7 CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST MO. LLVL
NORTHEAST DRY FETCH SHOVED PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLIER THIS MORNING. 
HOWEVER...SECOND CIRCULATION WHICH SHOWS ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC 
NEAR KIRKSVILLE MO WITH CONVECTIVE LOOKING ELEMENTS BOTH ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
LIFTING E/NE THROUGH NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. MAIN UPPER SYSTEM 
TO SHEAR AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH DECENT SHOT OF LIGHT PCPN ACROSS REGION 
TONIGHT. CONCERN THEN BECOMES PCPN TYPE. LLVL WINDS TO BECOME MORE 
NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH TIME WITH FETCH FROM ARCTIC AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS. THIS 
COUPLED WITH INITIAL PCPN SATURATING ATMOS NEAR THE SURFACE TO HELP COOL TEMPS 
DOWN. THEREFORE...EXPECT PCPN TO START AS -RA EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
-SN/--SN...ESPECIALLY LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND LIGHT 
INTENSITY TO PCPN DON/T LOOK FOR MUCH ACCUM...POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH SOME 
SPOTS MAINLY ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. -SN/--SN THU MORNING FOLLOWED
POSSIBLY BY SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTN NORTH/WEST AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS
IN WAKE OF SHEAR ZONE. MODELS CONTINUE TREND HINTED UPON YESTERDAY WITH
WARMING LOW LEVELS WITH JUST GLANCING BLOW OF REAL "BONE CHILLING" AIRMASS WITH
MAIN COLD CORE SHIFTING THROUGH GREAT LAKES. STILL WILL BE COLD BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD. THUS...LOOKING BRIGHTER AND WARMER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. 

EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO NEARLY ZONAL...WITH COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS TO HAVE IMPACT. MRF COMING IN LINE WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF UKMET 
WITH NEXT SYSTEM ON SUN. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING RAIN
TO SNOW BRIEFLY SUN NGT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CUTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN 
MON...THEN NEXT SYSTEM LATE TUE...THOUGH SUSPECT TIMING MAY BE BIT QUICKER THAN
MODELS DEPICT...SO WILL KEEP PCPN CHCS CONFINED TO TUE ATTIM. 
 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.


M^2