[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/30/02 2:57:38 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 300907 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CST WED OCT 30 2002

AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN LAST 
SEVERAL HOURS.  CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED...TO THE POINT OF BEING 
NEARLY CLEAR IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SOME DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE 
NORTHEAST.  POTENT LITTLE SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA.  THIS AREA OF 
PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA.  

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST IS THE CONTINUAL WEAKENING OF THIS SHORT 
WAVE...WHICH GRADUALLY BECOMES SHEARED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 2 
DAYS...WITH NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
CONCERNS ALSO INCLUDE ANY LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY...AND RECORD TEMPERATURE POSSIBILITIES FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

00Z MODELS FINALLY HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...BRINGING THE SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CWA 
TONIGHT.  JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SCATTERED RAIN OR 
SNOW SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM 
THE NORTHWEST.  FOR NOW...HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND 
00Z.  WITH JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW...WILL NOT MENTION SNOW 
AMOUNTS...BUT THESE SHOULD BE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS TRICKY TODAY...WITH THE DRYING STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN 
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WITH MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM 
THE WEST.  WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER 
THAN AN AVERAGE OF MAV AND FWC TEMPS.   TONIGHT WILL GO WITH A 
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAV AND FWC...WHICH IS CLOSE TO GOING TEMPS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...AS 
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  DRYING QUICKLY 
FOLLOWS...SO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY.  AGAIN WILL 
KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.  

FRIDAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AS A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES IN 
AND THE 500 MB COLD POOL MOVES OVER AREA.  

EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...
NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO EXTENDED ATTM.
 
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE