[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/29/02 3:04:47 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 290913 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 AM CST TUE OCT 29 2002

SWATH OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO REGION STEADILY...WITH 
PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA.  EAST 
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS CWA HAS BEEN BACKING SLOWLY AS THIS AREA OF 
PRECIPITATION MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.  THIS FLOW IS BRINGING IN 
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...HAS KEPT CIELINGS AND VISBYS IN THE MVFR 
CATEGORY.  

MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS WITH THE SYSTEM DUE THROUGH ON 
WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH 
THE END OF THE WEEK.  

00Z MODELS STILL HAVE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO KEEP CONFIDENCE IN 
PLACEMENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND FOR WEDNESDAY LOW.  MAIN 
FEATURE TO KEY IN ON IS THAT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE 
AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH BEST LIFT MOVING THROUGH AREA 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
CANNOT RULE OUT FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH THINGS 
LOOK LESS FAVORABLE THAN THEY HAVE ON PREVIOUS RUNS.  WITH THE WEAK 
LIFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THIS EVENT...POPS WILL 
BE HIGH...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW.  LOWER LEVELS COOL 
AS WINDS BACK INTO THE NORTH...AND BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES.  
THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS MAINLY RAIN IN THE 
MORNING...THE NORTH WILL BE A MIX AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM 
THE WEST.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FAR NORTH WILL HAVE CHANGED TO ALL 
SNOW...WITH MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVING A MIX.  DURING THE NIGHT THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO 
JUST FLURRIES BY MORNING.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALSO SHOULD BE LOW.
 
EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...
NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE