[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/27/02 2:21:52 AM

Sun, 27 Oct 2002 02:21:52 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 270830
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 AM CST SUN OCT 27 2002

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL. PRECIP DEVELOPED IN
THE ROCKIES PLAINS FROM COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPPER
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON RADAR DATA...THIS SHOULD BEGIN
ENTERING/AFFECTING THE WESTERN HALF OF CWFA IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME PERIOD.
FORCING INCREASES WITH TIME WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH LOWER
LEVELS BECOMING SATURATED IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME PERIOD. EVENT LOOKING
SIMILAR TO THE LAST WED NIGHT/THURS AM IN BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIP TO ENTIRE AREA WITH RA/SN MIX ALONG HIGHWAY 20. BELIEVE THIS TO
BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BRIGHT BAND CONTAMINATION
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT RIGHT AROUND 0 C. RA/SN MIX FOR EARLY
PART OF MONDAY AM BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

AVN ODD MAN OUT BRINGING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. HOWEVER NEW UKMET IS INDICATING THE SAME
THING. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CHANGE CLOUD WORDING TUESDAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH MAX TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO PERIOD 3 AS WELL WITH MAV COOLER THAN FWC.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE INCONSISTENCIES FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN REGARDS
TO MID WEEK SYSTEM. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH AVN DOING A BIG
CHANGE. HOWEVER BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS WITH TIME AND THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG UPPER JET POINTS TO CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS WITH SAID
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. SITUATION STILL POINTS TO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CWFA. CURRENT EXTENDED HANDLES THIS WELL
AND WILL NOT CHANGE.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...AND ILX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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