[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/26/02 2:44:03 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 260753
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2002

AREA OF DOWNWARD MOTION HAS PRODUCED CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE ESE. CLEARING TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD CWFA WITH IT ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. DOWNWARD MOTION/SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
DURING THE DAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS AS WELL WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING OUT AROUND MID DAY. SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS. NEXT IN SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. QG FORCING NOT BAD WITH
SOME UPWARD MOTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BREAK OUT. BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY CHANGEOVER TO SN IS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
DISTURBANCE TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT ON MONDAY ALLOWING QUIET WX TO RETURN.

GUIDANCE TEMPS OVERALL SIMILAR BUT MAV IS COLDER WITH MAXES AND THEN
WITH MINS IN PERIOD 4. MAXES TODAY PROBABLY BETWEEN FWC AND MAV.

AVN HAS TURNED MORE OMINOUS WITH MID WEEK SYSTEM THAN 24 HOURS AGO
WITH AN INVERTED TROF LAYING ACROSS THE CWFA. ECMWF/UKMET ARE POINTING
OR INFERRING TO A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND ALL MODELS LIKELY STILL
ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN. HOWEVER ALL AGREE THAT
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PRESENT WHICH MEANS A SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE EXTENDED AS IT IS POINTING
TOWARD THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86