[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/23/02 2:52:06 AM

Wed, 23 Oct 2002 02:52:06 -0500

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 230800
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2002

SYNOPTIC SCALE THIS MORNING SHOWS 100KT JET OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AT 500H...A SHARP EAST-WEST TROF CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER.  AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1041MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER NORTH DAKOTA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS RIDGE
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.  PRECIP ACROSS KANSAS IS IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC UPLIFT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS PRECIP IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS...
WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING OF PRIMARY INTEREST.  OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS
MAJOR SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT NOW ON DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST QPF
WILL STILL BE SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...BUT SIGNIFICANT QPF
IN .25 INCH RANGE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR FORECAST AREA.  1000-500MB AND
1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND 850MB TEMPS...ALL INDICATE A MIX ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAIN SOUTH...POSSIBLE
MIXED WITH WEST SNOW AT TIMES...AND ALL SNOW NORTH.  1 TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH BY 12Z THURSDAY...AGREEING WITH LATEST HPC
OUTLOOK.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS.  THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT PERIODS. PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROBABLY BE OF SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION TO FIRST EVENT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.  WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY NORTH...AS SOIL TEMPS MAY BE LIMITING FACTOR.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA