[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/19/02 2:45:17 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 191953
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CDT SAT OCT 19 2002

LATEST SURFACE INDICATING THAT SURFACE FRONT NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH 
AND EAST OF CWA...WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AS OF 
18Z.  PRESSURE RISES OVER MOST OF IA SHOULD HELP TO PULL THIS EAST 
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LOW CLOUDS STEADILY PULLING 
NORTH...DISSIPATING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE.  UPPER LEVELS INDICATING 
FAIRLY COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US...WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH 
RUNNING WEAK LITTLE WAVES ACROSS UPPER MID WEST...AND A SLOWLY 
FILLING 500MB LOW OVER NW TX.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS GO-ROUND INCLUDE POP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY 
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED TIME 
FRAME.

AM NOT ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. AVN 
APPEARS TO BE HAVING PROBLEMS WITH FEEDBACK FOR THIS LITTLE 
SYSTEM...SO WILL BE FAVORING THE ETA OVER THE AVN FOR THIS. WILL BE 
CHANGING SUNDAY NIGHT TO A DRY FCST...WITH A LOW POP ON MONDAY AND 
MONDAY NIGHT.   IN GENERAL...WILL BE USING GOING FCST TEMPS.  FOR 
TONIGHT THE BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK GREAT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE 
BEGINNING TO COME CLOSER TO GOING FCST.  FREEZE WARNING FOR CURRENT 
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN.

EXTENDED (TUE-SAT)...
SOME DEFINITE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL RUNS THIS 
FORECAST.  MRF STRIKING OUT IN A NEW DIRECTION...DEVELOPING A 
SURFACE LOW OVER NRN TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND RUNNING IT 
NORTHEAST ACROSS MIDWEST JUST SOUTH OF CWA.  NEW UKMET ALSO HINTS AT 
THIS...BUT NOT NEARLY SO STRONG.  SHOULD THIS DEVELOP AS MRF 
PROGS...LOOKING AT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS CWA FOR WED THRU FRI.  
REMAINING MODELS...INCLUDING CANADIAN...ECMWF AND 12Z AVN...KEEP THE 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE.  ANY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS 
EVEN WEAKER THAN UKMET SOLUTION...AND REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z AVN 
ACTUALLY DEPICTS SOME PRECIP FOR THE AREA...BUT THIS IS DIFFERENT 
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR WED-FRI. FOR 
SATURDAY...WILL THROW IN SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AS UKMET HINTING AT 
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL 
NOT CHANGE TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE 
TO FRIDAY NUMBERS.

.DVN...
IA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT EAST OF A MEDIAPOLIS TO DONNELLSON LINE. 
IL...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF A 
MOLINE TO ALEDO TO CARTHAGE LINE.
MO...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT EAST OF A KAHOKA TO NEEPER LINE.