[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/17/02 4:20:06 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 170928
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2002

ANOTHER FUN FORECAST THIS MORNING.  DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  WEAK TROUGH APPARENT IN THE SURFACE 
ANALYSIS FROM NORTHEAST TO WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  DRIZZLE AND LIGHT 
RAIN TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TODAY...TAPERING OFF BY MID 
DAY AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE KICKS IN.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBLE 
LIGHT SNOW MIX THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES DUE TO DEW 
POINTS STILL BELOW FREEZING.  

SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE AVN EARLIER THIS 
WEEK...AND HAS TURNED OUT TO BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH EARLIER AND 
CURRENT RUNS OF THE ETA.  WILL FAVOR ETA/MESOETA SOLUTION THROUGH 48 
HOURS...BUT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF MET GUIDANCE TEMPS 
TOMORROW.  STRONGER FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA LATE 
TONIGHT/TOMORROW.  HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES FOR 
FRIDAY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  ALSO ADDED BREEZY 
WORDING DUE TO PROGGED 30 TO 40 KT WIND FIELDS JUST ABOVE THE 
SURFACE.  MIXING SHOULD BUMP TEMPS EASILY INTO THE 60S.  

LITTLE CHANGE BEYOND FRIDAY NEEDED THIS PACKAGE.  TUESDAY STILL 
LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT.

THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION LOT.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

33