[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/16/02 3:58:51 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 160905
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2002

WITH THE FIRST SNOW POTENTIAL OF THE SEASON IN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...NO SHORTAGE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING.  WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING.  ALOFT KEY 
SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA CARRIED BY STRONG NW FLOW IS 
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.  850 MB TEMPS ALREADY -6 TO 
-2 NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA.

MODEL TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND THIS 
TIME AROUND...SHOWING THE SURFACE REFLECTION AS A TROUGH RATHER THAN 
A CLOSED LOW AND NOT DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AT 500MB AT ALL. BEST 
LIFT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE 500MB VORT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 
TEMPS ALOFT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FROM HWY 30 NORTH...SO HAVE 
MENTIONED SNOW NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY 
AS EVEN MINIMAL DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN 
BEFORE IT ENDS.  

OPEN WAVES TO RAPIDLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL RETURN 
TEMPS TO THE 50S AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. NEXT FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE 
DRY AS BEST DYNAMICS TRACK TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE 
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE 
LOW OVER THE SWRN US AS IT LIFTS OUT.  WILL KEEP ALL ZONES DRY 
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW...BUT THIS BEARS WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST 
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  

GIVEN YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE...HAVE FAVORED WARMER MET 
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.  WITH CLOUDS THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED FCST HIGHS 
A CATEGORY. OTHERWISE...MINOR VARIATIONS IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND 
BUT NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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