[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/15/02 2:49:23 AM

Tue, 15 Oct 2002 02:49:23 -0500

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 150756
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2002

SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NW PART OF CWFA ATTM. COLD AIR LAGGING 
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS 
MORNING...PUTTING A LID ON HIGHS.  INITIAL CONCERNS CENTER ON 
CLOUDS/TEMPS TODAY AND MINS TONIGHT.  CAA TODAY AND SOME COLD AIR SC 
WILL HOLD TEMPS TO AROUND 50.  SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER CWFA 
TONIGHT AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO MINS IN THE 20S 
STILL LOOK IN ORDER. 

VORTEX SETTING UP OVER ONTARIO AS ADVERTISED BY THE AVN FOR THE LAST 
FEW RUNS.  THUS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW AVN SOLUTION.  CANADIAN VORTEX 
WILL SEND A STRING OF SHORT WAVES PARADING ACROSS THE REGION AND 
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.  FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT IN AN AREA OF STRONG UVV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.  
500MB TROUGH CLOSES OFF THURSDAY MORNING...SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT 
THROUGH THE CWFA.  PRECIP TYPE THE BIG QUESTION WITH THE BAND OF 
PRECIP ALONG/BEHIND FRONT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SNOW NORTH 
AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS WILL PLAY 
A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE.  EITHER WAY...WITH GROUND 
TEMPS AOA 40...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BRIEF.

INTO THE WEEKEND...NORTHERN STREAM PULLS NORTH AND SOUTHERN STREAM 
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL US.  RESULT WILL BE 
WARMEST TEMPS SATURDAY AS CLOUDS SHIELD FROM SOUTHWEST ENCROACHES 
ONTO CWFA.  

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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