[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/14/02 2:33:40 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 140742 CCA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2002

SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST TO INDIANA THIS MORNING...AND WIND 
FIELDS HAVE RESPONDED BY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  TEMPS 
CONTINUE TO FALL ALTHOUGH MUCH MORE SLOWLY.  WITH SUB FREEZING DEW 
POINTS...FROST AND/OR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING STILL POSSIBLE AROUND 
SUNRISE ALTHOUGH DURATION OF FREEZE SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY 
EXPECTED.

FIRST QUESTION TODAY IS MAX TEMPS.  WITH FULL SUN AND INCREASING LOW 
LEVEL WAA...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY. MAV LOOKS TOO COOL AND 
MET HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WARM...SO WILL OPT FOR TEMPS AROUND THE 
FWC COMPROMISE.  ACTIVE PATTERN COTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK.  COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  MODELS IN 
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA TONIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE 
AND BEST QC FORCING WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OVER MN AND WI...SO 
EXPECT A DRY FROPA.  CHALLENGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE 
TEMPS.  WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF FWC MAXES AND MINS SINCE 
GUIDANCE HAS RELIABLY BEEN OVERSHOOTING THE LAST FEW DAYS. 

BY 72 HOURS LONGER RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER.  AVN AND ETA PPOINT 
TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
INTENSIFIES AS IT DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.  END 
RESULT HERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A FROPA THURSDAY.  
ECMWF AND UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE FEATURES.  WILL NOT ADD PRECIP BACK IN FOR THURSDAY 
ATTM...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL HANDLING TONIGHT AND 
RECONSIDER TOMORROW IF AVN/ETA ARE CONSISTENT.  

NO CHANGES TO LATTER PERIODS THIS MORNING. 
 
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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