[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/10/02 2:30:47 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 101937
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
236 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2002

LATEST 18Z ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT SURFACE RIDGE HANGING ON OVER 
CWA...KEEPING SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
IA.  SOME SHRA FROM DEVELOPING OVER CWA THIS MORNING...IN THE FAR 
NORTH...WHERE THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF WAA AT 850 AND 700 MB. FOR 
THE MOST PART...THIS FEATURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF CWA...AND DO NOT 
EXPECT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE THE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE 
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE 
BRIGHT SUNSHINE.  WHERE CLOUDS ARE LINGERING FROM THE PRECIP THIS 
MORNING TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL.  DIFFERENCES SHOW 
UP IN THE MODEL IN THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
BETWEEEN 36 AND 48 HRS.  BY 60HRS THE UKMET AND ETA MUCH ARE WEAKER 
THAN THE AVN...AND TRACKING FARTHER NORTH.  THIS DIFFERENCE DOES NOT 
SEEM TO HAVE A LOT OF AFFECT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA THROUGH 
CWA...WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING NEARLY THE SAME TIMING.  THE 
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL...AND HOW MUCH THE 
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND FRONT.  SATURDAY TEMPS ARE 
TRICKY...WITH THE AVN BRINGING IN LOTS OF COLD AIR...WITH HIGHS ONLY 
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  THE NGM MORE MODERATE...AND THE ETA 
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.  IN GENERAL WILL FOLLOWING AVN...THOUGH FEEL 
IT IS TOO STRONG AND WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...CLOSER TO GOING 
TEMPS.  

EXTENDED...MON-THU
THE EXTENDED HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY...MATCHING UP FAIRLY 
WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN.  THIS SOLUTION BRINGS A SECONDARY 
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN 
SOME PRECIP AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER...WEAKER 
SHORTWAVE.  THICKNESSES ON THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SYSTEM 
INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE WHITE STUFF MIXED IN...BUT WILL 
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. HAVE GONE WITH AN AVERAGE OF MEX AND FMR TEMPS 
FOR MOST PART.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE