[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/10/02 2:34:58 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 100742
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
242 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2002

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL IL THROUGH SRN IA
INTO NERN NE.  REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS PCPN MAINLY OVER SERN
MN/WRN WI WITH ANOTHER SMALL AREA IN W CENTRAL IA. PCPN OCCURING IN
AREA OF WAA AHEAD OF H5 S/W MOVING THROUGH WRN MN AND SERN SD.
10/00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF
COUNTRY.  NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT REGION WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH SRN BC.

SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY FOCUS ON UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS
TODAY AND FRIDAY.  FOR THE WEEKEND TIMING ISSUES OF SATURDAY FROPA
WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN U.S. DECAYS BY THIS EVENING AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF B.C. S/W
DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK WARM FRONT OVER
CWA LIFTS NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN IA
PCPN...AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PACKAGE IF THIS PCPN MAINTAINS
ITSELF INTO CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING.  850 TEMPS WARM INTO THE 10 TO 12C
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.  HOWEVER
BASED ON TRAJECTORIES AND WEAK LOW LEVELS WINDS...WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSE TO COOLER MAV/FWC VALUES...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN YDA.  CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO COOL INTO LOWER 50S.  FRIDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER AND A LITTLE MORE MIXING...WILL GO WITH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THURSDAYS EXPECTED MAX TEMPS.

BIGGEST PROBLEM AREA FOR THIS FORECAST IS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.  AVN CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST
AND QUICKEST MODEL.  AVN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL CROSS MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AT 12Z WITH THE ETA HOLDING FROPA BACK UNTIL THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME.
A LOOK AT THE UKMET SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS
THE FRONT BACK IN WESTERN IA.  WILL SIDE WITH THE UKMET SINCE IT
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS DO AGREE
THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL AND MAINLY POST
FRONTAL. SINCE DYNAMICS ARE SO STRONG...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
THUNDER THEN TAPER BACK TO RAIN DEEPER INTO THE COLDER AIR. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE ATTAINED BY MID MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH TEMPS FALLING AND
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CUT BACK ON PCPN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MODELS DRYING OUT ATMOSPHERE QUICKY AFTER FROPA.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF