[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/9/02 2:31:16 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 091937
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
237 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2002

TODAY A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS CWA...WITH WEAK FRONT DRAPED JUST TO 
THE SOUTHWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KMSP.  A FEW SHOWERS 
ALONG FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE NOW DISSIPATED FOR MOST PART.  
UPPER LEVELS INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW...STRUNG 
LIKE BEADS ON A STRING TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.  

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPS NEXT TWO DAYS...AND 
IN THE LONGER TERM THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS 
WEEKEND.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...AND ARE IN 
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY.  BY FRIDAY MORNING THE 
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS MUCH 
DEEPER ON THE AVN THAN ON THE ETA OR UKMET.  HOWEVER...THERE DOES 
NOT SEEM TO BE ANY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE FEATURES AS THEY 
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL BE GOING WITH A CONSENSUS FCST OF THE 
AVN AND ETA...THOUGH STICKING FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AVN MOS TEMPS AS 
THE ETA MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY.  FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AVN MOS TEMPS TO GOING TEMPS OR FWC 
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AS WAA DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL FRIDAY.  WILL GO 
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN FWC AND MAV FOR FRIDAY.

AM GOING TO ADD IN SOME LOW POPS WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS IT 
APPEARS THAT FROPA WILL BE AROUND 12Z. AS THIS IS FAIRLY NEW WILL GO 
WITH JUST LOW POPS...AND IF THE UKMET SOLUTION COMES THROUGH THESE 
CAN BE DROPPED.  MODELS ONLY INDICATING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT WILL 
GO WITH A HIGH CHANCE POP AS SYSTEM LOOKS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR 
SATURDAY TO NEED AT LEAST THAT.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER 
SHIFTS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.

EXTENDED...SUN-WED
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGS IN A LOT OF 
COLD AIR...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TO MOVE OVER AREA ON SUNDAY.  
AVN/UKMET HAVE GENERALLY THE SAME IDEA...WITH THE AVN DEEPER THAN 
BOTH UKMET AND ETA AT 84 HRS. THE SAME TREND THAT THE 00Z RUNS 
INDICATED.  A COMPROMISE IS BEST...SO WILL GO ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER 
THAN MRF MOS TEMPS.  HAVE DROPPED TSRA TO JUST SHRA FOR SATURDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE LINGERED SUNDAY SHOWERS ONLY TIL 
MID-DAY.  WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST AND HAVE BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE