[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/9/02 3:25:30 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 090832
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2002

WEAK COLD FRONT FROM KDBQ THRU KFNB AT 06Z.  LIGHT SHRA
OCCURRING NORTH OF BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IA INTO SWRN WI WHILE
OTHER LIGHT -SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE IA/NE MO JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.  BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.  S/W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER NORTHERN MN AT 00Z.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
HOLDING OVER REGION AND WASHING OUT SURFACE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MO.  MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
CENTER MAINLY AROUND TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ONGOING PCPN OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.  SHRA TO
THE NORTH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WHILE SOUTHERN CWA SHOWERS
HAVE JUST DEVELOPED SINCE 06Z.  WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN
RIGHT BEFORE ISSUING ZONES.  MODEL RH PROGS SEEM TO BE UNDER DONE THIS
MORNING...BASED ON CURRENT IR IMAGES AND WILL PLAY UP CLOUDS TODAY...
MORE THAN MODELS INDICATE.  DESPITE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...
TEMPS WON'T BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAYS.  WILL PROBABLY GO A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS, SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND WE SHOULD HAVE MID CLOUDS OVER AREA MOST OF THE DAY.  TONIGHT
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SRN MN
IN WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION ZONE SETTING UP LATER TONIGHT.  BEST THREAT
WILL BE ALONG THE IA/MN AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING AN PCPN FOR
NOW.  THURSDAY/FRIDAY LOOK LIKE A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO S/W MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE B.C.
COAST. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS.

SATURDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO H5 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.  AVN/UKMET HAVE ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME IDEA...EXPECT THAT THE AVN IS MUCH DEEPER THAN THE UKMET.
AT 84HRS THE AVN IS ALSO DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ETA. WILL NOT
GO QUITE A COLD AS THE AVN IS SUGGESTING.   MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
FROPA WILL OCCUR OVER CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL MAKE NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSRA/SHRA...
ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING FROPA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONG TSRA LOW.


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF