[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/8/02 2:38:18 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 081945
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2002

LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SUNSHINE ACROSS CWA TODAY...WITH COLD FRONT 
ACROSS WESTERN IA AND MN.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN FLOW CAUSED SOME 
SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER SHORT 
WAVE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOULD COME THROUGH TONIGHT.  

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND 
THE TIMING OF THE RATHER STRONG SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE SHORTWAVE 
CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED 
BEST AT 18Z BY THE AVN...WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ETA SOLUTION.  AVN 
ALSO HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT SURFACE PATTERN.  WILL IN GENERAL 
BE FOLLOWING AVN SOLUTION THIS FCST.

FOR TEMPS...WILL BE GOING WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAV AND MET 
TEMPS...WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND INCREASED CLOUDS 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAA KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...AVN 
PUTTING OUT A BAND OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA.  
FOR NOW...HAVE DOUBTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THIS...AND 
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.  IN COMPROMISE...WITH INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS 
GOING PACKAGE HAS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COND.  

EXTENDED...SAT-TUE
SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS.  MAIN 
CHANGE IS TO FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER 
TEMPERATURES TO FLOW IN BEHIND FRONT. MODELS ON LAST FEW DAYS HAVE HAD 
BIG DIFFERENCES WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF FLOW...WHICH CONTINUES TODAY. 
AVN/MRF HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH FROPA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR 
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF MUCH FASTER.  LATEST UKMET HAS SPEEDED UP FROM 
PREVIOUS RUN AND IS NOW CLOSER TO AVN/MRF SOLUTION.  WILL BE GENERALLY 
FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION.  ON TUESDAY THE MRF BRINGS A WEAK LITTLE SHORT 
WAVE THROUGH CWA...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE 
OUT PRECIP.  WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL PUT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE