[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/5/02 3:30:01 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 050837
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2002

SURFACE CHART SHOWS DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM WEST
VIRGINIA TO MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE WAS FILLING IN BEHIND IT...WITH
THE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN KANSAS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTHEAST AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST FROM IT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR AREA...WITH
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA.

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH WEAKER UPPER AIR FEATURES THAN IN REALITY.
MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE H5 TROF OVER AND JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...
AND WITH THE TROF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.


SHORT TERM...

MODELS CONTINUE LIFTING OUT THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST...AND BRING IN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TODAY. MODELS RAPIDLY DEVELOP A SYSTEM TO OUR WEST TODAY...
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...AND A
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE LOWEST OF THE SEASON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA...ON SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS. FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

GOING FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO EXPECT LITTLE IF
ANY CHANGES.


EXTENDED...

MODELS BRING A SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIP. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS DONE.
WEATHER THEN REMAINS QUIET THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD. MODELS DEVELOP
A SYSTEM TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT DON/T EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO
AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE PERIOD. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM GOING
EXTENDED FORECAST TO NEW EXTENDED FORECAST.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

JAZ