[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/28/02 2:50:38 PM

Thu, 28 Nov 2002 14:50:38 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 282103
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CST THU NOV 28 2002

OVERALL MODELS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN PUSHING TROF/WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH FROM CANADA. 1000-850 LAPSE RATES FALL OVER THEMSELVES FRIDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX DOWN. ARCTIC COLD PUSH
TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA DURING
THE DAY. H85 WINDS PROGGED TO BE 50 KNOTS. MODEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS
STEEP AS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR SHOULD STILL MIX
DOWN. AS ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTURE WRUNG OUT OF IT...WE SHOULD SEE
SOME --SN DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES REGARDING WIND ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW TO MAKE THIS DECISION.

EXTENDED STARTS OUT QUIET AND COLD AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH WAA BEGINNING IN ERNEST SUNDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH SYSTEM AND JET
WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT CURRENT LOW POPS STILL LOOK OK. PRECIP SHOULD
BE A MIX MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW MON NIGHT/TUES.
GLOBAL MODELS VERY OMINOUS WED/THURS WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT. TRENDS
IN GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TROF TO THE WEST.
H85 TEMPS EVEN COLDER WITH THIS EVENT THAN FOR SATURDAY.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND ILX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86