[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/28/02 2:34:49 AM

Thu, 28 Nov 2002 02:34:49 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 280848
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
248 AM CST THU NOV 28 2002

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD 500MB TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S...WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE
ROTATING OVER DVN...AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS COLD SHOT ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THRU.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON A PRELIMINARY SURFACE TROF ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE.  VV'S AREN'T
STRONG BUT 300MB DIVERGENCE IS STRONG WITH 140KT JET MOVING THRU
WISCONSIN. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.  MAIN FEATURE WILL BE WINDS.
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THRU ON BACK OF ONTARIO LOW AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON 516 1000-500 THICKNESS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN BY 12Z SUNDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP THRU THE BOTTOM.  WILL BE A QUICK TURN AROUND
IN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...MOVING THRU MONDAY EVENING.  AS WITH FRIDAY-SATURDAY
SCENARIO...COLD AIR ADVECTION WAITS FOR PRIMARY COLD FRONT ROTATING
OUT OF THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  MAY BUMP TODAY'S HIGHS UP A
NOTCH...BASED ON TRAJECTORIES FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA