[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/27/02 2:34:14 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 272048
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
248 PM CST WED NOV 27 2002

MODELS OVERALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING RIDGE SLOWLY THROUGH
CWFA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING QUIET WX ACROSS REGION.
AS HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE TO SUGGEST
BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER 1000-850 LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE TO
MIX DOWN 30 KT WINDS ALOFT TO MAKE IT WINDY. WAA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY TO BRING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THE WARMING IS ALOFT AND NOT AT
THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY GETS INTERESTING. 1000-850 LAPSE RATES NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC WHICH WILL ALLOW 40-50 KT H85 WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH NO
PROBLEM. SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE SATURDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS. STRONG CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW TO BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW --SN TO OCCUR AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHSN
DEVELOP. DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TO BE QUITE SMALL. QUIET AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AS RIDGE MOVES OVER AREA. MON/TUE TIME PERIOD GETS INTERESTING AS
NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS AREA. TEMPS TO BE CRITICAL BUT SOME RAIN AND SNOW
LOOK POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY TO BE QUIET AGAIN. IF UKMET IS CORRECT END
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.


BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FWC MAXES NEXT TWO DAYS LOOK TOO WARM
WITH COOLER MAV NUMBERS PREFERRED. MAV MINS DON/T LOOK TOO BAD BUT
MAY BE TOO WARM FOR PERIOD 3.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND ILX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86