[LeArc] [Fwd: AstroAlert: Impact of Coronal Mass Ejection - AuroraWarning]
Joseph L. Rossmiller
[email protected]
Wed, 27 Nov 2002 10:56:22 -0600
Dave;
I might add that there is a small risk to those of us on earth. Power
distribution grids can be disrupted by interference to the earths magnetic
field. Remember, electricity and magnetism are interrelated. When the
earths magnetic field changes due to the solar particles interaction, it can
induce current into power lines. This induced current can cause breakers to
trip. As other systems kick in to back up the first failure, other breakers
can trip. The domino effect of these can be a major blackout. An event
like this one caused a major black out of Eastern Canada several years ago.
The second possible effect to us, I'm not as up on. I'm sure you've heard
of the ozone hole in the earth atmosphere. The ozone layer normally blocks
harmful radiation from the sun. With the widening hole, more particles pass
through. And these particles can increase the risk of certain cancers.
One last thing. The major effect of these storms is at the earth poles,
north and south. Due to the interaction with the Van Allen belt, this is
where the particles are directed. This is why the auroras are effected.
And why the ozone depletion at the poles is such a big issue.
Normally the only people who really have to worry about these mass ejections
are astronauts orbiting the earth. These particles can cause death within a
few hours to humans if intense enough. Those of us on the earth are
protected by the Van Allen belt. Astronauts are outside this belt while in
space. This was a big concern during the lunar landings in the late 60s and
early 70s.
Jay. Please correct me where I've gone astray.
Happy Thanksgiving to all who've read this far.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jay Hainline" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, November 27, 2002 5:53 AM
Subject: Re: [LeArc] [Fwd: AstroAlert: Impact of Coronal Mass Ejection -
AuroraWarning]
> See http://www.qsl.net/learc/ for club information.
>
> Annual Christmas meeting December 10, 2002. Bring your appetite and a
dish to pass.
>
> Please join us on Sunday Evenings for the
> Lamoine Emergency ARC Sunday Evening Net.
> Net time is 8:00 PM local time.
>
>
> Hi Dave. The alert is issued when there is a possibility of an aurora also
> known as "northern lights". It is more of a concern for satellite users as
it
> can affect the electronics on board as well as electric utility companies
> especially up in Canada. For the rest of us, it can certainly have an
affect on
> radio propagation. Usually degraded conditions on the hf bands, sometimes
> shutting down completely. However it often has an enhanced affect on
> propagation in the vhf/uhf bands where you can make contacts by bouncing a
> signal off the aurora curtain as well as some enhancement to southern
paths of
> propagation on 6 meters.
>
> Back in Sept. 1999, after a coronal mass ejection impacted the earth, we
had a
> major aurora event with propagation up to 432 MHz. After the aurora
propagation
> died out, 6 meters then open up to Australia where I worked several
stations in
> VK4 land for about a half hour.
>
> Coronal mass ejections are usually caused by a major flare event on the
sun.
> Basically the sun will eject a burst of energy in the form of the solar
wind.
> Depending where the flare occurred, this burst of energy sometimes heads
toward
> earth, thus the warning. CME's often are what causes auroras here on
earth.
>
> A good site to monitor what is going on in space and our sun is
> http://www.spaceweather.com
>
> 73 Jay
>
> Dave Nissen wrote:
> >
> > See http://www.qsl.net/learc/ for club information.
> >
> > Annual Christmas meeting December 10, 2002. Bring your appetite and a
dish to pass.
> >
> > Please join us on Sunday Evenings for the
> > Lamoine Emergency ARC Sunday Evening Net.
> > Net time is 8:00 PM local time.
> >
> > Hi Jay..
> >
> > Interesting message that you posted. As I am ignorant of the subject, I
> > wondered if you could explain a few things for me and the others that
might
> > not have understood the content of your message.
> >
> > I read that this is a aurora warning, and that there is coronal mass
> > ejections that are predicted to happen. Any time I see the word
"warning" I
> > am concerned. I checked my homeowners insurance and they don't speak of
> > "aurora" or "coronal mass ejections". I can only assume that this
upcoming
> > event has something to do with armature radio. Are we about to see an
> > increase in band openings or quite the opposite? Is this something like
the
> > Northern Lights?? They sure are pretty to watch..
> >
> > Thanks for the post, and the time to inform and educate me..
> >
> > 73
> > Dave de W9COP
> >
> > Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend,
> > Inside a dog it is too dark to read.
> >
> > Groucho Marx
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jay Hainline" <[email protected]>
> > To: <[email protected]>
> > Sent: Tuesday, November 26, 2002 7:11 PM
> > Subject: [LeArc] [Fwd: AstroAlert: Impact of Coronal Mass Ejection -
Aurora
> > Warning]
> >
> > > See http://www.qsl.net/learc/ for club information.
> > >
> > > Annual Christmas meeting December 10, 2002. Bring your appetite and a
> > dish to pass.
> > >
> > > Please join us on Sunday Evenings for the
> > > Lamoine Emergency ARC Sunday Evening Net.
> > > Net time is 8:00 PM local time.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -------- Original Message --------
> > > Subject: AstroAlert: Impact of Coronal Mass Ejection - Aurora Warning
> > > Date: Tue, 26 Nov 2002 15:19:01 -0700 (MST)
> > > From: Cary Oler <[email protected]>
> > > To: [email protected]
> > >
> > > =================================================================
> > > This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
> > > =================================================================
> > >
> > > A s t r o A l e r t
> > > Sun-Earth Alert
> > >
> > > Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
> > > http://www.spacew.com
> > >
> > > 26 November 2002
> > >
> > >
> > > Contents
> > >
> > > MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
> > >
> > >
> > > MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
> > >
> > > A shock front in the solar wind, similar in properties to a bomb
> > > explosion blast wave that occurs on the Earth, has been observed by
the
> > ACE
> > > spacecraft at 21:10 UTC (4:10 pm EST) on 26 November. The shock front
is
> > the
> > > result of the explosive eruption of a large solar filament (a huge
area of
> > > gas suspended above the surface of the Sun's photosphere by strong
> > magnetic
> > > fields) that was observed on 24 November. The eruption produced a full
> > halo
> > > coronal mass ejection which is now impacting the Earth.
> > >
> > > Very early, initial and preliminary data from the ACE spacecraft
is
> > > showing a strong interplanetary magnetic field that is oriented in a
> > > direction favorable for producing auroral storm activity. As a result,
a
> > > middle latitude auroral activity warning has been issued. Periods of
minor
> > to
> > > major geomagnetic and auroral storming will be possible with this
> > > disturbance, particularly if the interplanetary magnetic field
maintains
> > its
> > > favorable southward orientation.
> > >
> > > You can determine whether conditions might be favorable for
producing
> > > periods of auroral storming yourself by visiting our plots page at:
> > > http://www.spacew.com/plots.html. Perhaps the most important plot to
watch
> > is
> > > the Bz plot, which describes the strength of the north-south component
of
> > the
> > > interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). When the Bz plot is sustained in
a
> > > strong negative (southward) orientation (greater than -10 to -15 nT
for
> > > longer than an hour or two), geomagnetic and auroral storming is
likely to
> > > commence. Stronger solar wind velocities and densities also play a
role in
> > > modulating the response of the Earth's magnetosphere, but the dominant
> > > parameter is the north-south Bz component of the IMF. Plots at the
above
> > URL
> > > are updated every 1 to 2 minutes with real-time data.
> > >
> > > European and North American observers may be well placed for
> > observing
> > > the strongest phase of activity. The middle latitude auroral activity
> > warning
> > > is included below.
> > >
> > > /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> > >
> > > MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
> > >
> > > ISSUED: 22:10 UTC, 26 NOVEMBER 2002
> > >
> > > /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> > >
> > > *** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***
> > >
> > > For North Americans, begin watching TONIGHT.
> > >
> > >
> > > VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
> > > VALID UNTIL: 22:00 UTC (5 PM EST) ON 27 NOVEMBER
> > >
> > > HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
> > > MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 26 - 28 NOVEMBER
> > >
> > > PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 16, 40, 15, 12 (26 NOV - 29 NOV)
> > >
> > > POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO
HIGH
> > >
> > > POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
> > > MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
> > >
> > > ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL
MIDNIGHT
> > >
> > > EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE
> > >
> > > OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO
GOOD
> > >
> > > AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...
> > >
> > > OREGON TO EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO
IOWA
> > TO
> > > ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA
AND
> > > MARYLAND.
> > >
> > > ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
> > >
> > > NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO
> > > NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE
OBSERVED
> > > FROM NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.
> > >
> > >
> > > SYNOPSIS...
> > >
> > > A moderately strong interplanetary disturbance is in-progress.
Impact
> > > of the disturbance occurred at the Earth near 21:52 UTC (4:52 pm EST).
> > > Periods of minor to major auroral storming are expected to accompany
this
> > > disturbance. Observations of auroral activity will be possible across
> > > wide-spread middle latitude regions during the next 12 to 18 hours.
> > Initial
> > > data suggest the disturbance could become fairly strong initially.
> > >
> > > This warning will remain in effect until 22:00 UTC on 27
November. It
> > > will then be downgraded to a watch or allowed to expire.
> > >
> > > PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
> > > http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
> > >
> > > CURRENT REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF ACTIVITY MAY BE FOUND AT:
> > > http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
> > >
> > > CURRENT REAL-TIME CONDITIONS (PLOTS) ARE AVAILABLE AT:
> > > http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
> > >
> > > CURRENT GALLERY OF ASTRONOMICAL AND AURORA IMAGES:
> > > http://www.spacew.com/gallery
> > >
> > > DISCUSSIONS OF ACTIVITY
> > > http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
> > >
> > >
> > > ** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
> > > ==================================================================
> > > AstroAlert is a free service of SKY & TELESCOPE, the Essential
> > > Magazine of Astronomy (http://SkyandTelescope.com/). This e-mail
> > > was sent to AstroAlert subscribers. If you feel you received it
> > > in error, or to unsubscribe from AstroAlert, please send a plain-
> > > text e-mail to [email protected] with the following
> > > line -- and nothing else -- in the body of the message:
> > > unsubscribe sun-earth [email protected]
> > > replacing "[email protected]" with your actual e-mail address.
> > > ==================================================================
> > >
> > > _______________________________________________
> > >
> > > Lamoine Emergency Amateur Radio Club
> > >
> > > W9SSP - 147.060 (103.5 tone)
> > >
> > > WB9TEA - 444.300
> > >
> > > Meetings on the second Tuesday of the month.
> > > 7:00 PM at the American Red Cross Building in Macomb.
> > >
> > > Next meeting will be December 10, 2002.
> > >
> > > Hope to see you there.
> > >
> > >
> > > LeArc mailing list
> > > [email protected]
> > > http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/learc
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> >
> > Lamoine Emergency Amateur Radio Club
> >
> > W9SSP - 147.060 (103.5 tone)
> >
> > WB9TEA - 444.300
> >
> > Meetings on the second Tuesday of the month.
> > 7:00 PM at the American Red Cross Building in Macomb.
> >
> > Next meeting will be December 10, 2002.
> >
> > Hope to see you there.
> >
> > LeArc mailing list
> > [email protected]
> > http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/learc
>
> --
>
>
> Jay Hainline KA9CFD EN40om
> Colchester, IL
> [email protected]
> http://www.qsl.net/learc
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> Lamoine Emergency Amateur Radio Club
>
> W9SSP - 147.060 (103.5 tone)
>
> WB9TEA - 444.300
>
> Meetings on the second Tuesday of the month.
> 7:00 PM at the American Red Cross Building in Macomb.
>
> Next meeting will be December 10, 2002.
>
> Hope to see you there.
>
>
> LeArc mailing list
> [email protected]
> http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/learc