[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/27/02 2:41:21 AM

Wed, 27 Nov 2002 02:41:21 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 270854
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 AM CST WED NOV 27 2002

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS 500MB TROF CENTERED OVER EAST
CENTRAL U.S...AND A TROF OVER WEST COAST.  LOCALLY A SHORT WAVE...
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...IS MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FURTHER ALOFT...THE 300MB PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH A 140KT JET OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA...AND A 115KT JET OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  AT THE
SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA TO WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU
THE AREA.  THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET OVER ALL...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY MODERATING AS THE 300MB/500MB TROF SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST...
RESULTING IN A BROADER LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SURFACE TROF THURSDAY MORNING.  NOT ENUF MOISTURE
FOR PRECIP.  WARMER TEMPERATURES OFF THE PLAINS WILL FOLLOW.  THE
NEXT SURFACE TROF...A COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE THRU AROUND 18Z
FRIDAY...WITH THE 500MB TROF AXIS AROUND 00Z.  VV'S WILL BE STRONG
IN THE MORNING...WITH MODERATELY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AT 300MB
FROM 18Z THRU 00Z IN RESPONSE TO A 140KT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...BUT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE LACKING.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA