[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/25/02 2:46:21 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 252058
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CST MON NOV 25 2002

CHILLY MORNING WITH FIRST SNOW COVER ON GROUND...AND TEMPS THAT FELL 
IN THE THE UPPER TEENS.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO 
KEEPING WX QUIET...THOUGH MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT THESE PESKY 
LOW CLOUDS.  MID LEVELS SHOWING THAT CAA WAS QUITE STRONG OVER UPPER 
MIDWEST THIS MORNING...WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST 
OF THE AREA.  

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INCLUDE TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS ON 
TUESDAY...AND THEN CLEARING AND TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED JUST FINE...AND SEEM TO BE 
HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS TO CAUSE TOMORROWS SNOW AMOUNTS OK 
FOR NOW.  SOME MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN OTHERS WITH IT...BUT 
OTHERWISE SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER WITH 
THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN MO.  

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT CAME ACROSS THE AREA 
SUNDAY...JUST A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...AND WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN 
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.  BAROCLINIC ZONE AND VORT MAX TRACK ARE ABOUT 
275 MILES SOUTH OF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM.    WITH GOOD LIFT BEGINNING 
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS 
SOUTHWEST CWA BY 12Z...QUICKLY SPREADING EAST...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR 
WILL KEEP IT FROM ARRIVING ANY SOONER.  GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR 
ALREADY IN PLACE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 15 OR 20 TO 1 SNOW TO 
WATER RATIOS...WHICH COULD...IF MODEL QPF IS TO BE BELIEVED...RESULT 
IN A MAX OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH.  THINK THAT SPEED OF 
VORT MAX AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THIS FROM FORMING...AND 
WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTH...WITH 1 TO 2 POSSIBLE 
ALONG A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO PRINCETON...AND AROUND AN INCH FROM 
SIGOURNEY TO STERLING.  AMOUNTS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO 
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION ALONG THE HIGHWAY 
20 CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY NIGHT ONLY NEEDS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN 
THE EVENING...THEN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GIVEN THE 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ANYTHING BRIGHTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY WOULD BE TOO 
OPTOMISTIC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THOUGH STRONG DOWNWARD 
UVVS SHOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY.

.EXTENDED...FRI-MON
LONG RANGE MODELS GETTING CLOSE TO A SPAGHETTI PLOT OVER THE CONUS 
FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET EXCEPT FOR 
SATURDAY.  FRIDAY...DESPITE FROPA THERE ISNT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR 
DYNAMICS FOR FLURRIES.  SATURDAY A JET MAX DIVES OUT OF THE MN/WI 
AREA...AND SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACROSS CWA.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE 
DRY AND MOSUNNY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  MONDAY ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS 
AREA...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT IF THERE MIGHT BE SOME 
FLURRIES WITH IT.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW...AS THE CHANCE 
OF THE SN IS VERY LOW. 

COORDINATED WITH...DMX...EAX...STL...ILX...LOT...THANKS!

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE