[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/21/02 2:54:51 AM

Thu, 21 Nov 2002 02:54:51 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 210906
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 AM CST WED NOV 20 2002

SHORT WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN THIS MORNING SPURRING CLOUDS/PRECIP 
ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NW IL THIS AM.  PRECIP MORE IMPRESSIVE ON 
RADAR THAN IN SFC OBS...WITH FEW REPORTS OF ACTUAL PRECIP OR 
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY. CLOSED SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MN WITH +-3 MB 
RISE/FALL COUPLET.  

MAIN ISSUES THIS MORNING IS PRECIP THIS MORNING THEN NEXT UPPER 
LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

00Z MODELS VARY IN STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.  GFS HAS THE BEST 
HANDLE ON ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH SO WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION 
FOR BIG PICTURE TREND.  BASED ON PRECIP ONGOING IN EAST CENTRAL 
MN...SUB FREEZING DEW POINTS...AND TEMPS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF 
FREEZING...WILL CONTINUE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH EASTERN ZONES 
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ELSEWHERE SUGGEST 
TEMPS WILL NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW UNTIL PRECIP IS NEARLY OVER...SO 
WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS 
AND CAA.  WILL FAVOR COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW 
MAV MINS THROUGH FRIDAY.  WAA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT FRONT WARRANT TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. MODELS 
CONTINUE WEAKENING TREND FOR SATURDAY SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH 
AREA OF STRONG OMEGA AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY JUST SOUTH OF 
CWFA.  WILL PUT POPS SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY BUT OTHERWISE FLURRIES 
LOOK GOOD.  

NO CHANGES TO LATTER PERIODS AT THIS POINT.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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