[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/20/02 3:02:07 AM

Wed, 20 Nov 2002 03:02:07 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 200912
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CST WED NOV 20 2002

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING IOWA THIS MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT ALSO 
WEAK THUS ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES SO FAR THIS MORNING.  SLIGHTLY BETTER 
LIFT FOR LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP 
CHANCES FOR TODAY DWINDLING AS MODELS COME IN WEAKER AND DRIER.  AVN 
IS BY FAR THE WETTEST...BUT STILL KEEPS PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTHERN 
FRINGES OF CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP 
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THURSDAY AS THE 150KT 300 MB JET NOW 
ROUNDING THE WEST COAST RIDGE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE 
TROUGH. LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP 
TYPE TODAY SHOULD BE RAIN...WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.  BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING 
SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER.  WILL TWEAK MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS ACCORDINGLY.   

RIDGING SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING FRIDAY 
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE NEXT FRONT/SYSTEM INTO THE AREA 
SATURDAY.  LATEST RUNS ARE DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL A 
DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP SATURDAY.  SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE MORE 
THAN FLURRIES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT WILL NOT 
CHANGE FOR NOW TO AVOID YO-YOING AND ALLOW ANOTHER RUN TO SEE WHERE 
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE.  

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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