[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/18/02 3:03:20 AM

Mon, 18 Nov 2002 03:03:22 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 180914
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 AM CST MON NOV 18 2002

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO GET WETTER AS EVENT GETS CLOSER IN. ETA AND
NEW META FINALLY BREAK OUT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CWFA
INSTEAD OF EVENING AND EAST OF CWFA LIKE YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS AGREE
ON NICE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PLENTY OF OMEGA AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS CWFA DURING THE DAY. AVN ACTUALLY BETTER THAN NGM IN
DEPICTING CURRENT PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO SATURATE DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
PRECIP REACHES THE SURFACE. EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WOULD OCCUR
WITH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MIXTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ZR/IP/SN BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN. IF ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE...
ENTIRE SOUNDING WOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ALL SNOW. IF THIS OCCURS ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS
(HOPEFULLY) WITH CHANGEOVER TO RA MELTING ANY SN THAT FALLS.  DON/T
THINK HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE INDICATES PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY
TO BE QUIET AND DRY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF CWFA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH. ETA
STRONGER THAN AVN BUT ODDLY IN AGREEMENT WITH UKMET. WILL NOT
CHANGE EXTENDED FOR NOW BUT POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP IN ABOUT
NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL PASS THESE
CONCERNS ON TO DAY SHIFT.

EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS AM ALONG WITH PRECIP FAVORS COOLER MAV
NUMBERS FOR PERIOD 1. WET GROUND SUGGESTS TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND COOLER FOR TUESDAY.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND ILX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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