[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/17/02 2:51:12 AM

Sun, 17 Nov 2002 02:51:14 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 170902
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2002

CLOUDS BEING STUBBORN IN DISSIPATING ACROSS CWFA WITH WEAK FLOW
BRINGING IN LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM THE EAST BUT SATELLITE TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL ERODING. 00Z UA SHOWS VERY STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE PAC NW GIVING CREDENCE TO YESTERDAYS STRONGER AVN
SOLUTION. ETA HAS TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD AVN AS WELL WHICH HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT OR GOTTEN STRONGER. IN SHORT TERM RIDGE TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS CWFA DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL NOT PROMOTE MUCH MIXING.
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION TO RESULT IN SLOW WARM UP
DURING THE DAY. NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CWFA LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER AVN WETTER AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH ETA TRENDING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD AVN. QG FORCING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT OVERLY
GREAT BUT DO SHOW ATMOSPHERE SATURATING WITH TIME. NGM HAS STRONGER
OMEGA DURING THE DAY MONDAY THAN ETA WITH THE AVN GOING NUTS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY WHICH MAY
ALLOW A BRIEF MIX MONDAY MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT IF AVN IS
RIGHT...COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION IN ABOUT NORTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF CWFA.

HOWEVER WAA IS FAIRLY STRONG DOWN LOW SO WILL GO WITH A COLD RAIN...
BUT PASS ON CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT. PRECIP LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SPRINKLES/FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING.

BRIEF SHOT OF SUN YESTERDAY ALLOWED TEMPS TO GET CLOSE TO FWC.
RIDGE OVER CWFA WITH DOWNWARD MOTION SHOULD FAVOR COOLER MAV. WILL
THEREFORE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR PERIOD 1. MINS TONIGHT LIKELY IN
THE EVENING WITH NEAR STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. COOLER MAV
NUMBERS FOR MONDAY LOOK MORE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIP.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND ILX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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