[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/16/02 2:45:49 AM

Sat, 16 Nov 2002 02:45:50 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 160857
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2002

MODELS SHOW SIMILARITIES EARLY ON AND THEN DIGRESS INTO DIFFERENCE
SCENARIOS STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD DOWNWARD
MOTION DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME
SHOULD PRECLUDE CLOUDS FROM BREAKING UP DURING THE DAYTIME. CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO
COLD READINGS. NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A WEAK TROF THROUGH CWFA AFTER
06Z MONDAY. ETA DRY WITH AVN SHOWING VERY LIGHT PRECIP.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER NICELY AND THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME QG FORCING AND UPWARD MOTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME S--
TO DEVELOP. AVN KEEPS PRECIP THREAT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
WITH A SECONDARY SHOT MONDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T KNOW WHETHER TO REALLY
BELIEVE THIS BUT FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES FOR MONDAY.

MAV COOLER THAN FWC FOR ALL PERIODS AND INITIALLY LOOKS PRETTY
CLOSE FOR TODAY. MINS TONIGHT DEPENDENT ON OVERALL CLEARING AND MAV
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY LOOK A LITTLE COOL.

COORDINATED WITH DSM AND LSE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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