[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/15/02 4:01:41 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 151011
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
405 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2002

MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW DAYS AND IMPACTS 
ON TEMPS.

SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR OHIO RIVER WILL SAG SOUTH/EAST WHILE RIDGE
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST NEXT FEW DAYS. H5 TROUGH WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVE. VORT MAX SEEN IN IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP DROPPING
SOUTH/EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IA...WITH SUBSIDENCE SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS
IN IT/S WAKE. ELSEWHERE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL. MODELS SUGGEST 
SOME LLVL CONVERGENT FLOW TODAY WITH WINDS VARYING FROM 
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...THUS EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS LINGER WITH 
SOME HOLES. THIS COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST...WILL GO WITH MOCLOUDY. GIVEN READINGS 
NEAR FORECAST MAXES...WILL BUMP UP FORECAST MAXES CLOSER TO 
WARMER MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING BEST OF LATE.

TEMPS TONIGHT REAL TRICKY...AS ANY CLEARING AND READINGS WILL PLUNGE.
BELIEVE EAST OF RIVER HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER WITH
CYCLONIC LLVL FLOW...THUS WILL GO WITH WARMEST READINGS THERE.

PCPN CHCS NOT LOOKING THAT GREAT LATE SUN/EARLY MON WITH BEST FORCING
NORTH AND MOISTURE LIMITED. ANY PCPN WOULD APPEAR TO BE
--SN/--RA...BUT WON/T CHANGE ATTIM AND LET DAY CREW TAKE LOOK. 

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTIM...ALTHOUGH LATEST MRF NO SHOWING MUCH THREAT
FOR PCPN ON THU. 


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.