[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/11/02 3:11:47 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 112122
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CST MON NOV 11 2002

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL 
WEAK SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  SUPPORT IS 
LIMITED...SO ONLY PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.  
LOW CLOUD SHIELD GRADUALLY MOVING EAST AND BACK EDGE SHOULD REACH 
THE WESTERN ZONES BY 03Z...MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 08Z...AND BE THROUGH 
CWFA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.  LOOKING FOR SUNSHINE IN THE 
MORNING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY BACK IN LATE TOMORROW.  

850 MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WARMING 850 
TEMPS TO +6 TO +8.  LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 
50S WEDNESDAY.  NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADS AREAWIDE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES.  MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM 
DOWN...SO MAY NEED TO REMOVE PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTOGETHER 
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.  TEMPS SHOULD BE PLENTY WARM THURSDAY FOR 
RAIN. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL PRECIP HAS POTENTIAL TO LINGER INTO 
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN PROGGED TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW 
MIX. 

PATTERN REPEATS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A LULL FRIDAY...NICE 
WARMUP SATURDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA...THEN ANOTHER WEAK 
POTENTIAL PRECIP-MAKER SYSTEM SUNDAY. SLIGHT VARIATIONS WITH EACH 
AIR MASS CHANGE...BUT NO MAJOR TEMP SWINGS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH 
DAY 7.


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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