[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/7/02 1:36:03 AM

Thu, 07 Nov 2002 01:36:03 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 070747
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
145 AM CST THU NOV 7 2002

.OVERVIEW...UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSLATING TO ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
160+ KT PACIFIC JET REACHING PACIFIC COAST.  LEE SIDE TROUGH NOW
DEVELOPING IN PLAINS WITH MILD 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +10 TO +16C
MOVING TOWARD MIDWEST FROM HIGH PLAINS.  SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY FAIR
SKIES TIL NEAR PACIFIC COAST AS UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION WITH EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST EAST OF SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN
RANGE AT 06Z.

...WARMUP AND WINDS NEAR TERM ISSUES...THEN SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
AND STORMS MID TERM ISSUE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAY 1-3...ETA MOST AMBITIOUS ON WARMUP BUT VERIFIES A
SHADE TOO WARM AND WILL TREND JUST BELOW WITH INPUTS FROM AVN-GFS.
THUS...WINDS TO REACH BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY FROM SW AND TEMPS TO RISE
WELL INTO 60S.  TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET AND GRADIENT TO LIMIT MIXING
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES SO LOWS ON LOW SIDE OF VERY MILD GUIDANCE BLEND
REASONABLE.  FRIDAY...STRONG 50 KT 850 WINDS SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING AND IN SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 70 DEGREES
IN SW FLOW DESPITE LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS.   FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES TO REACH MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY.  WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY
DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY AND MOST ENERGY ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASSING
SUNDAY.  KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD.

EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...MODELS STILL VARYING QUITE A BIT ON EVENTUAL STORM
SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN PLAINS MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AND THUS STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TRACK.  WILL TAKE BLEND OF UKMET/AVN-GFS SUGGESTING SOME
IMPACTS TO AREA LATE MON/TUE WITH QUESTION OF ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR SO
RAIN FOR MON REASONABLE AND THEN COOLING TO ADDING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
TUESDAY.  MAJOR QUESTION OF SOUTHERN JET ANCHORING THIS STORM PHASING
WITH CANADIAN JET STILL POORLY RESOLVED.  SIZE OF SYSTEM SUGGESTS 12Z
MODEL CYCLE OUTPUTS SHOULD HELP CLARIFY THESE QUESTION AS NO QUESTION ON
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...JUST WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS