[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/6/02 1:53:39 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 062003
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
203 PM CST WED NOV 6 2002

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS STRONG 500MB TROF OVER
APPALACHIANS...WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO HOME...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A 160KT JET IS LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A LESSER 120KT JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  AT THE SURFACE...THE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.  LOW CLOUDS
FROM TUESDAY'S RAIN PRODUCER HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT THE EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN ON
THEIR TAIL.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH A STRONG TROF
MOVING THRU THE AREA IN THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  PRECIP
TYPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...AS THICKNESSES WILL BE WARM INTO
SUNDAY...WHEN NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU.  UNTIL THEN FLOW IS
LESS AMPLIFIED FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH AN ABBREVIATED 72-HOUR HINT
OF INDIAN SUMMER.

SHORT-TERM MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...WITH THE ETA A LITTLE SLOW IN
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO AREA AT 18Z...AND ALSO A TOUCH
EXAGGERATED WITH 500MB SHORT WAVE.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE MODELS
INDICATE A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY A LEADING
WAVE ON THE PRIMARY TROF ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED
THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.  THE MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE ONLY IN LOOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE PRIMARY 500H TROF...
WITH A FIRST LOBE THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND A SECOND ON
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU NEAR 12Z SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY EARLIER ACCORDING TO THE UK.  A LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO INDIANA ON MONDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST ON TEMPS.  PRECIP MAY BE OVERLY
AMBITIOUS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL STAY WITH GENERAL THEME
DUE TO FULL LATITUDE TROFING.  PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH A DRY SLOT SUNDAY.  COOL DOWN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA