[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/4/02 9:11:06 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 050321
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
920 PM CST MON NOV 4 2002

...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKING LIKELY NORTH OF I-80 LATE TONIGHT 
AND TUESDAY...

CONCERNS MOUNTING ON PCPN TYPE AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO PLUMMET...WITH READINGS M/U 20S NORTHERN HALF AND U20S/L30S SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTING
FROM ROCKIES WITH DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF. PCPN EXPANSIVE THROUGH 
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. 00Z KDVN UPPER AIR SOUNDING 
SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LATEST META FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION IN ROUGHLY 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. DROP-OFF IN 
TEMPS THIS EVE CONCERNING...WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BUT THIS COMBINED WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES SUGGEST ANY PCPN TO
FALL AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING LIKELY...WITH ADVISORY POSSIBLE. 00Z META SOUNDINGS
BACK THIS UP AND SHOW ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING AT SATURATION
LATE TONIGHT FROM CEDAR RAPIDS...TO INDEPENDENCE...DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT.
FOR NOW WON/T GO WITH ADVISORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL PASS CONCERNS ONTO 
MID CREW. FORCING SUGGESTS COUPLE INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. BULK OF PCPN 
TO FALL GENERALLY AFT 10Z OR 11Z...SO THEY WILL HAVE TIME TO
ISSUE ADVISORY. WILL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT CHANGES. FURTHER SOUTH FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIX OF SLEET/SNOW/RAIN THROUGH I-80 CORRIDOR AT ONSET
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN...WITH MAINLY RAIN IN FAR SOUTH. HOPE TO HAVE ZONE 
UPDATES OUT BY 945 PM OR SO.  

COORD WITH ARX AND DMX...THANX!

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

M^2