[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/4/02 2:51:00 PM

Mon, 04 Nov 2002 14:51:02 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 042100
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CST MON NOV 4 2002

REAL DATA SHOWS MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE VERY WELL THIS AM ON THE
WEST COAST (TOO WEAK) AND ALL MODELS HAVE NO CLUE THAT THERE ARE
CLOUDS ACROSS IOWA. BASED ON THIS BELIEVE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PROGGED. ADDITIONALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BRING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
AT THE ONSET AND DURING TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY DAY...WITH PRECIP ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THIS. AGREE WITH CHI
THAT THIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS
YESTERDAY WHERE A NARROW BAND OF SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LIKELY AREA FOR MIXED PRECIP IS HIGHWAY 30 ON
NORTH...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING. MIX
POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING WITH
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WESTERN THIRD.

QUIET WX EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO
NORMAL. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA ON THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR TODAY PREFER THE MUCH COOLER MAV
NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY...AND THEY MAY BE A LITTLE WARM. BEYOND THAT
WILL GENERALLY GO COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAV/FWC. TEMPS COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR FRIDAY GIVEN GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND ILX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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