[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/1/02 1:31:56 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 010742
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
135 AM CST FRI NOV 1 2002

.OVERVIEW...SEASONABLY COLD...EARLY SEASON CANADIAN AIR NOW IN PLACE
WITH SFC HIGH POSITIONED AT 06Z IN NORTHERN PLAINS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING
SE INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SATELLITE SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR SKIES
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...SOME CLOUDS IN MID PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED
UPPER LOW SPINNING IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...COLD TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN POPS LATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH REMNANTS OF NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MAIN ISSUES THIS CYCLE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODELS NEAR
TERM WITH ONLY ISSUE TEMPS AND DAY TIME WIND SPEEDS.  WILL TAKE BLEND ON
MAV/FWC/MET FOR HI TEMPS AS SUPPORTED ALSO BY PERSISTENCE AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS PROGGED.   WINDS...GRADIENT WINDS WITH CAA AND SUNSHINE
SUPPORTS BREEZY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH GOOD MIXING
OF MOMENTUM TO SURFACE.  FOR LOWS...ETA 2M TEMPS TOO WARM SO WILL USE
ONLY FOR TRENDS.  THUS...LOWS TONIGHT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THIS
MORNING'S TEMPS...OR ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE BLEND.  QUIET WITH SLOW
WARMUP SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH HEADS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOME CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY WITH REMNANTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LACK OF
SFC BOUNDARY AND LIMITED FORCING SURFACE AND ALOFT...FINALLY...LIMITED
MOISTURE SUGGEST GOING ON LOW SIDE OF POPS.

.EXTENDED (MON-THU)...MEDIUM MODELS SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING A MORE
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT KEEPING
POPS IN WITH MODERATE VARIANCE.  CURRENT PACKAGE CAPTURE MAJOR FEATURES
SO PLAN MINOR CHANGES.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS