[LeArc] Special Weather Statement : MLI@ 5/31/2002 6:23:57 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS35 KMLI 311121
SPSMLI
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-009-
015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011059-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2002

...VERY WARM...

A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH...BECOMING STATIONARY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EVENING.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DON/T LOOK FOR MUCH COOLING...WITH A DOME
OF WARM AIR SURGING IN ALOFT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 DEGREES SOUTH. WHAT WILL BE MORE
NOTICEABLE IS LESS HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER...HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS OF NEAR 65 MPH.

TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TO
TRIGGER A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...MAINLY FROM LATE EVENING ON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
COMPLEX WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN
A SHORT TIME PERIOD...THUS CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS.
PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THE REGION COULD BE AFFECTED
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE EXACT
TRACK IS STILL IN QUESTION...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HAVE A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO A STRONGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREATS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED RIGHT ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WWWW