[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/30/02 4:20:37 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 300921
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2002

LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS NOW WEAKENING.  WITH BOUNDARIES... 
MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED 
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP TODAY.  WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THETAE RIDGE...AND 
PW UP TO 1.4 SUGGEST CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.  MAIN SHOW 
TO COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH FINALLY 
PUSHES INTO EASTERN IOWA.  ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR 
SQUALL LINES...SO MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE ACTUAL 
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRIER BUT NOT MUCH COOLER DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY 
NIGHT...WARM FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN 
MCS OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
FOR CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES.  HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE 
THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.  

GUIDANCE HIGHS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A CAT LOW...SO WILL STICK TO TREND 
AND FORECAST A CAT ABOVE MAV TEMPS TODAY.

EXTENDED STILL LOOKING ACTIVE...AND WILL NOT MODIFY THIS TIME AROUND.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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