[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/29/02 4:17:21 AM

Wed, 29 May 2002 04:17:21 -0500

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 290917
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE 
BOUNDARIES...NONEXISTENT CAP...AND A STRONG UPPER WAVE DROPPING DOWN 
OUT OF MINNESOTA.  OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION PLUS DIURNAL HEATING 
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING AGAIN TODAY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND 
INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH LIS AROUND -3 AND 
CAPES UP TO 1000 THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT 
A CONCERN...ANY THUNDER COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL 
FOR HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.

PRECIP CHANCES FINALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT CLEARS 
THE CWFA.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS AS THE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE 
FRONT THIS RUN...KEEPING IT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING.  

FRIDAY PROMISES A RESPITE...WITH WEAK CAA TO BE OFFSET BY MORE SUN. 
PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND FOCUSING IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SO 
WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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