[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/28/02 4:13:29 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 280911
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT WITH WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THE REGION.  
SQUALL LINE RAPIDLY LOSING ITS PUNCH AS IT PUSHES INTO WESTERN 
IOWA.  EVEN IF PRECIP DOESNT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA...IT WILL LEAVE A 
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES 
AROUND 2K THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO SHEAR.  WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S 
AND POTENTIAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TODAY 
INTO THIS EVENING.  LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE DUE TO INADEQUATE WIND 
PROFILES.

WEAK TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS IOWA WEDNESDAY...WARRANTING ANOTHER 
CHANCE OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW SHIFTS TO THE 
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRYING US OUT.


SATURDAY BEARS WATCH FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP CHANCE.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW 
DUE TO POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN CURRENT REGIME...SO WILL HOLD OFF 
ON INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

33