[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/22/02 3:40:01 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 222039
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM WED MAY 22 2002

BIG STORM SYSTEM TODAY OUT ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUFFERING 
FROM LACK OF MOISTURE...WITH ONLY DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S THERE.  
MOISTURE STILL LAGGING FARTHER SOUTH...WITH LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN OK.  
120M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB INDICATING THAT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  RIDGE OVER MIDWEST TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT 
EAST VERY SOON.

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDE THE WINDS THIS EVENING AND THE PRECIP 
CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...WITH NO HUGE 
DIFFERENCES NOTED AT 18Z.  THE OLD SUMMER DIFFICULTY OF TIMING 
SHORTWAVES REARS ITS HEAD TODAY...AS MODELS AS CLOSE AS 24 HOURS 
DISAGREE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MCS TO DEVELOP FOR TONIGHT AND 
MOVE EAST.  HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE AVN AND ETA.  ETA BRINGS 
FRONT THE FARTHEST SOUTH BY FRIDAY AM...WITH THE AVN MUCH FARTHER 
NORTH...SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTING THE POSITION OF THE MCS FOR THAT 
MORNING.  PREFER AVN POSITION...BUT THE WAVE IS TOO STRONG AND 
APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS.  OTHERWISE...NO 
GREAT SURPRISES EXPECTED IN TEMPS...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN.  

TONIGHTS MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS...WINDS IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS 
OF CWA CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA.  WILL CONTINUE 
ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR LOCATION OF CURRENT ADVISORY.

EXTENDED...SAT-WED
WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH A FLOW SHIFT AROUND MID WEEK...AND A 
SUSPICIOUSLY HURRICANE LIKE FEATURE AFFECTING THE EAST COAST.  
HOWEVER...FAIRLY DRY PERIOD WITH ONLY CHANCES OF PRECIP ON 
SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  

.DVN...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE