[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/21/02 2:37:11 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 211935
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2002

CANADIAN HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE CWFA ALLOWING THE WARM-UP TO BEGIN AND
BRING NORMAL MAY TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL SIMILAR IN BRINGING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (SAVE EASTERN THIRD CWFA) SO ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT IN
STORE. NICE LLJ OF 50-60 KNOTS SHIFTS EAST BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE DAY BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR. THETA E RIDGE AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES/OMEGA COME IN PLACE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LLJ TO
ALLOW NOCTURNAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. FRONTAL PROXIMITY ALONG WITH
THETA E RIDGE/OMEGA KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FWC/MAV SIMILAR WITH MAV A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT. GIVEN LOW DEW POINTS
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. MAV WARMER THAN FWC ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN
STRONG FLOW THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS WELL. AFTER PERIOD 2...MOIST AIR
IN PLACE SO MAV MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MINS.

EXTENDED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF
CWFA IN TIME. CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY STILL LOOK GOOD
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. WEAK HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN JUST FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SUNDAY TO REMAIN DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

COORDINATED WITH DSM.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86