[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/20/02 2:34:53 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 201934
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
233 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2002

THE QUESTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FEW. HOW COLD WILL IT GET...WHAT
TYPE OF HEADLINES...AND HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL THERE BE. TEMPS UNDER THE
HIGH FELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN LAST NIGHT. TEMPS TO
MODIFY A LITTLE BUT WILL STILL SEE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LAST THIRD OF MAY. QG FORCING/OMEGA SHOWS GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION AND
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. TRAJECTORIES INITIALLY
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THEY SHOULD BECOME LESS
OF A FACTOR AS HIGH SETTLES ACROSS CWFA. THAT ALL SAID WILL RAISE FLAG
FOR A FREEZE ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST THIRD OF CWFA AND FROST ADVISORY
ELSEWHERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS IN
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/NORTHEAST IOWA FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A NICE INVERSION
STILL PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF COLD WX
SC DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY. THESE SHOULD BREAK APART AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY WITH WAA CLOUDS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY
AND WARMER WITH A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND.

TREND WITH MAV TEMPS FOR THE PAST 4 RUNS HAS BEEN COLDER WITH EACH RUN
FOR TONIGHT. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR COLDER MAV OVER THE FWC FOR TONIGHT.
PERIOD 2 AND BEYOND FWC/MAV ARE FAIRLY CLOSE.

EXTENDED GETS INTERESTING AGAIN. NEW FRONT TO COME DOWN BUT WITH A
RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST MODELS APPEAR CORRECT IN STALLING IT OUT
ACROSS THE CWFA FOR A FEW DAYS. IMPULSES/WAVES RUNNING ALONG THE FRONT
TO BRING A THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. QUIET WX FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL.

.DVN...FREEZE ADVISORY TONIGHT.
IA...IAZ042-054-066.
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009.
FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT.
IA...040-041-051>053-063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...MOZ009-010.

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