[LeArc] Special Weather Statement : MLI@ 5/10/02 5:25:06 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS35 KMLI 101025
SPSMLI
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-009-
015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
525 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2002

...QUIET TODAY THEN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO
THE AREA.

A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
PULL MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND COLLIDE WITH A WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT WILL SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE
CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE PRE DAWN AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT
INFORMATION INDICATES THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NO FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...GULF MOISTURE
...AND APPROACHING LOW WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT HEAVY
RAIN. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT GENERAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIER RAIN.

CONSIDERABLE WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE PRESENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH
THE ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW...SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER IS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. AT THIS TIME THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE MOSTLY LIKELY TIME BEING SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
GENERAL RISES FROM THIS RAIN.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS AS THE
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

$$
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