[LeArc] SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603 FOR MO/WRN IL

[Duane Whittingham]

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603 FOR MO/WRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194...
   
VALID 012043Z - 012200Z
   
LATEST DATA INDICATE SFC LOW IS LIFTING NEWD INTO CENTRAL MO...VERY
NEAR COU...WITH WARM SECTOR SPREADING ACROSS SERN MO TOWARD SRN IL
AS WARM FRONT RETREATS ACROSS REGION.  WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WW...ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED INTO
SERN PORTIONS OF IL...AND POINTS DOWNSTREAM.  THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
WRN PORTIONS OF WW IS THE ABILITY FOR WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE
ELEVATED THUNDSTORMS AHEAD OF SFC LOW.  REGIONAL RADAR DATA
SUGGESTS SHOWERS ARE INCREASING FROM SRN IA...SEWD INTO CENTRAL IL. 
IF ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME A THREAT.
   
FARTHER SOUTH...WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 
VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OK...AND PLUME OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE SPREADING INTO SWRN MO.  THERE IS SOME
QUESTION WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
DUE TO VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT.  LATEST THINKING IS COLD FRONT WILL
FORCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING BUT ACTIVITY MAY
EVOLVE INTO SQUALL LINE DUE TO STRONGER FORCING.
   
..DARROW.. 05/01/02

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Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows
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